About

Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Sunday, 18 June 2017

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning June 19


Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2433, 0.06%
Neutral
Neutral
Nifty
9588, -0.83%
Neutral **
Bearish
China Shanghai Index
3123, -1.12%
Bearish
Bearish
Gold
1257, -1.17%
Bearish
Bearish
WTIC Crude
44.97, -1.88%
Bearish
Bearish
Copper
2.56, -3.23%
Bearish
Bearish
Baltic Dry Index
855, 0.71%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.1197, 0.02%
Neutral
Neutral
Dollar/Yen
110.85, 0.52%
Bullish
Bullish
Dow Transports
9414, 0.92%
Bullish
Bullish
High Yield (ETF)
37.07, -0.16%
Neutral
Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.16%, -1.91%
Bullish
Bullish
Nyse Summation Index
638, 6.74%
Bullish
Neutral
US Vix
10.38, -2.99%
Bullish
Bullish
Skew
135
Neutral
Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500
2422, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2393, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2280, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
9586, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
9411, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
8792, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
10.91, 0.48%
Neutral
Neutral
Dollar/Rupee
64.42, 0.08%
Neutral
Neutral


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty


Bullish Indications
9

8

Bearish Indications
4
5

Outlook
Bullish
Bullish

Observation
The S and P 500 was unchanged and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are bullish.
The market is encountering resistance at these levels. Time to tighten those stops.


On the Horizon
Australia – RBA minutes, New Zealand – Rate decision, Euro Zone – PMI, U.S – Existing and new home sales, Oil inventories, Canada – Retail sales, CPI  






*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index


Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com


**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral




stock market signals june 19

The S and P 500 was unchanged and the Nifty fell last week. Signals are bullish for the upcoming week. Past and future FED rate hikes are yet to be priced in and sentiment indicators are back in complacency mode. Market internals and commodities are flashing major warning signs of a large decline ahead. The critical levels to watch are 2445 (up) and 2420 (down) on the S & P and 9650 (up) and 9500 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

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